Esquire recently ran an article entitled The Secret History of the Impending War with Iran That the White House Doesn’t Want You to Know. I suppose you could say the title says it all, but there are dimensions to this crisis that go far beyond foreign policy blunders and international diplomatic intrigue.

Ideology has overtaken much of Washington politics, and in such a politically charged environment it is difficult to separate election politics from  the needs of the nation because in the minds of the ideologues, they are the only hope this nation has. To them winning elections is not part of the democratic process that guides this nation, but a winner-take-all game that is not so much about we the people reaffirming  our shared sovereignty, but rather asserting rule over the American people. Ideologues rarely have enough faith in democracy, and when they show a willingness to go outside of the law to achieve their policy objectives, as in the case of the Bush Administration, we have to be concerned about how far the will go to stay in control, especially when they begin to anoint themselves as the last line of defense against World War III.

So, this is probably a terrible thing for a congressional candidate to do, but I’m going to go out on a limb and make some 2008 election predictions.

It pains me to say it, but in terms of what’s best for the country, I think the presidential race is already a wash. Before even the first primary vote has been cast, the combination of special interest money and media punditry seems to have already chosen the major party candidates: Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani.

Now there’s no question that Senator Clinton represents the most powerful faction of the Democratic party, but it’s interesting to note that the Neoconservative kingmakers and chief war promoters are all lining up behind Giuliani. These are the same right wing extremist elements that also exert a significant amount of influence within the current Bush Administration.
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In brutally stark, cold, and calculated political terms, the best shot that Rudy Giuliani (or any Republican candidate) would have of beating the Democrats, who at this point seem unbeatable, is if Hilary Clinton wins the nomination, and if there is also a significant escalation in the war on terror.

Now, I don’t have to explain to voters in this district why nominating Hilary Clinton would be a mistake for the Democratic party. So-called “Red State” Republicans have been winning elections by running against her for at least the past twelve years!

If there is a war with Iran before next November, Clinton will be virtually powerless to mount any meaningful sort of anti-war opposition as she has been beating the war drums just as loudly as a Senator and in her Presidential campaign. For this reason she has already lost the hearts and minds of progressive Democrats, and their support of her campaign will already be lukewarm at best.  Couple this with the clamors for strong wartime leadership that will surely follow any strikes against Iran, and with the almost Pavlovian reaction against her that even moderate conservatives tend to feel, and there are enough votes to deny another Clinton Presidency.

At this point, I’m sure the Neocons feel they have invested far too much energy in developing unitary executive power to hand the office back  to the Clintons. In their minds, they no doubt believe that they’re justified in doing anything to prevent it because they believe that they alone can win this war that their own delusions, more than anything, have brought about. In the next fourteen months, there is also tremendous pressure mounting against them to prove that their strategy in Iraq has not failed completely, and that they themselves created the power vacuum there that Iran now seeks to fill. If recent history is any sort of guide, they will continue to lash out and push forward than admit failure.

If I’m right about this, any strikes against Iran will be timed in no small part against two presidential players have a lock on their respective part nominations. The end result of this will be at least another four year extension of their hold on the presidency in the form of President Giuliani.

And if I’m wrong, and we have another President Clinton…  Well, I don’t expect much difference from the current ineffectual leadership of the Democratic party anyhow. Then again, perhaps the will of the people will win out over the interference of the lobbyists and the media. Perhaps there will be some major upsets in the primaries. I’d still very much like to believe that it’s possible.

Regardless of how the presidential race goes however, all is certainly not lost. We can’t afford to lose hope. There is no reason for us to give up on the process of democracy. The American people just need to reaffirm their control over the destiny of this nation.

Perhaps the most important thing to take from all of this is that we need to start developing some alternatives for effective national leadership besides a dependency on an all-powerful President with all the answers. As weak as Congress has become over the past six years, it is still our best hope in Washington to assert any sort of check on the power of either another disastrous Republican or Clinton Administration.

Next year, the question voters should ask themselves is “Which candidate will do the best job of representing them with an honest eye on the process while standing up for their real interests?”